The Game of Survival with North Korea

Originally Published on December 2, 2019

Since the end of the Cold War, the greatest threat to the US security was connected to states that were accused of violating international norms such as instigating terrorism, committing human rights abuses, and seeking weapons of mass destruction. In the past decade, many of these states such as Iran, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria have suffered catastrophic aggression imposed by US-led coalitions due to the threats that they pose to the international society (Hirose & Kurizaki, 2019). Although there is an increasing nuclear and missile program development in North Korea, alongside a rise in human-rights abuses (Ma, 2018), this nation remains an outlier. Despite North Korea’s engagement in such activities, apart from diplomatic negotiations between the US and North Korea, have never led to armed conflict; thus, contrasting the relationship between the US and other states which have actively engaged in comparable activities which threaten global security.

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An important question to be posed here is: why has North Korea been free of military intervention by the US compared to states such as Afghanistan and Iraq?

In terms of ethnicity, North Korea is considered to be the most homogeneous society, with 99.9% of the North Korean population belonging to Korea (Hirose & Kurizaki, 2019). Ethnicity is one of the most important factors correlated with the likelihood of intrastate wars. Ethnic cleavage contributed to approximately 68% and 83% of intrastate wars after WW2 and the Cold War, respectively (Hirose & Kurizaki, 2019). With one ethnic group controlling the country, there is almost no likelihood for the existence of insurgency to occur in North Korea. As a result, it is difficult for the US to find a domestic ally and intervene in a national conflict. Other states such as Iraq and Afghanistan are very heterogeneous in ethnicity, allowing for the creation of large insurgent groups to which the US is able to form alliances with, intervene, and attack. Therefore, North Korea’s ethnically homogenous society protects itself from armed US intervention. However, factors other than homogeneity may allow insurgencies in North Korea to occur.

Ethnic conflicts are not the only source of national instability. There are also non-ethnic wars that are caused by revolutions and coup d’états. So, how different is North Korea from other states in terms of the relative capabilities concerning the distribution of wealth and military power?

North Korean leaders are very similar to authoritarian leaders who use restrictive policies, propaganda, force and constant coup-proofing to prevent uprising against the primary government (Hirose & Kurizaki, 2019). In this country, the poor and the military are oppressed and controlled, in the same way as in other authoritarian regimes, suggesting that North Korea is not an outlier in terms of non-ethnic politics.

What roles do the neighbouring countries play in defending North Korea from US military intervention?

The preferences and strategies of other East Asian countries may discourage the US from invading North Korea. In 1961, the Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty was formed between China and North Korea, such that the Chinese government has a legal obligation to defend North Korea with all its forces after the collapse of the Soviet Union (Hirose & Kurizaki, 2019). If the Chinese government violates its promise to defend North Korea, then that would hurt the reputation of their nation. And, if the US decides to attack North Korea, the nation may risk losing trading rights with its largest trading partners, China.

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In conclusion, the ethnic homogeneity of North Korea and its alliance with China defends the nation from armed US intervention, compared to heterogeneous states where the US has an opportunity to find allies to win an interstate war. Furthermore, the likelihood of peace between North Korea and the US may be maintained if North Korean anti-governmental movements are repressed as strongly and as harshly as possible.

References:

Hirose, K., & Kurizaki, S. (2019). The Logic of the Survival of North Korea. Asian Economic Policy Review, 14, 287–304. doi: 10.1111/aepr.12267

Ma, A. (2018, February 4). The 30 most authoritarian regimes in the world. Retrieved November 30, 2019, from https://www.businessinsider.com/economist-intelligence-unit-2017-democracy-index-worst-countries-2018-1#1-north-korea-108-30.